Early trends indicate that former US President and Republican nominee Donald Trump has gained an early lead with around 150 electoral votes compared to Vice President Kamala Harris. However, political analysts caution that this early advantage may not accurately reflect the final results, as Democratic candidate Kamala Harris could potentially alter the outcome.

What gave Trump a chance to claim ‘stolen election’

In the 2020 elections, states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin displayed what experts referred to as a “red mirage,” with Trump taking the lead on election night before a “blue shift” occurred as mail-in ballots—predominantly cast by Democrats—were counted, ultimately bringing Joe Biden ahead. Trump’s team leveraged this pattern to promote claims of a stolen election, yet the outcome was simply a result of state voting laws and mail-in ballot trends. Similar dynamics are anticipated this week, particularly as in-person votes are counted in states like North Carolina and Georgia.

Why declaring victory is complex

As ballots are tallied, Trump’s campaign reportedly intends to declare victory if he reaches the crucial 270 electoral vote threshold— a move that experts believe could be hasty given the intricate nature of ballot processing across different states. A significant percentage of Democratic votes come from densely populated urban areas, where counting can be slower, leading to delayed counts that may significantly affect final totals in the days following Election Day. This variability in vote reporting may lead to prolonged counting processes in states like Pennsylvania and Arizona.

What delays results

Each battleground state operates under its own timeline and rules for processing votes, which can influence the perceived winner on election night. For instance, Pennsylvania prohibits election officials from starting to count mail-in ballots until the morning of Election Day, which could result in delays of several days as Democratic mail-in votes gradually diminish Trump’s lead in in-person voting. A new law aims to alleviate concerns by requiring counties to disclose the number of outstanding mail ballots by midnight, helping to prevent misinformation.

In Wisconsin, where votes are centrally processed in major cities, large early-morning influxes of absentee ballots could once again sway the results in favor of Harris, similar to what occurred for Biden in 2020. North Carolina, recognized for its extended vote canvassing period, may keep Americans uncertain for days as absentee and overseas ballots continue to be counted post-election night.

In Arizona, where mail-in voting is highly favored, early results may show Harris in the lead due to early and mail-in ballots, yet the numbers might tilt towards Trump as in-person votes are added. This pattern may shift again as all mail ballots—including those submitted on Election Day—are counted in the following days.

Nevada, known for its lengthy counting process in 2020, might experience quicker tabulation this year owing to new regulations that permit early ballot processing weeks before Election Day. However, Nevada’s acceptance of late-arriving mail ballots postmarked by November 5 could still delay final results, particularly as late ballots historically tend to favor Democrats.