Early trends indicate that former US President and Republican nominee Donald Trump has gained an early lead with around 150 electoral votes compared to Vice President Kamala Harris. However, political analysts caution that this early advantage may not accurately reflect the final results, as Democratic candidate Kamala Harris could potentially alter the outcome.

What gave Trump a chance to claim ‘stolen election’

In the 2020 elections, states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin displayed what experts referred to as a “red mirage,” with Trump taking the lead on election night before a “blue shift” occurred as mail-in ballots—predominantly cast by Democrats—were counted, ultimately bringing Joe Biden ahead. Trump’s team leveraged this pattern to promote claims of a stolen election, yet the outcome was simply a result of state voting laws and mail-in ballot trends. Similar dynamics are anticipated this week, particularly as in-person votes are counted in states like North Carolina and Georgia.

Why declaring victory is complex

As ballots are tallied, Trump’s campaign reportedly intends to declare victory if he reaches the crucial 270 electoral vote threshold— a move that experts believe could be hasty given the intricate nature of ballot processing across different states. A significant percentage of Democratic votes come from densely populated urban areas, where counting can be slower, leading to delayed counts that may significantly affect final totals in the days following Election Day. This variability in vote reporting may lead to prolonged counting processes in states like Pennsylvania and Arizona.

What delays results

Each battleground state operates under its own timeline and rules for processing votes, which can influence the perceived winner on election night. For instance, Pennsylvania prohibits election officials from starting to count mail-in ballots until the morning of Election Day, which could result in delays of several days as Democratic mail-in votes gradually diminish Trump’s lead in in-person voting. A new law aims to alleviate concerns by requiring counties to disclose the number of outstanding mail ballots by midnight, helping to prevent misinformation.

In Wisconsin, where votes are centrally processed in major cities, large early-morning influxes of absentee ballots could once again sway the results in favor of Harris, similar to what occurred for Biden in 2020. North Carolina, recognized for its extended vote canvassing period, may keep Americans uncertain for days as absentee and overseas ballots continue to be counted post-election night.

In Arizona, where mail-in voting is highly favored, early results may show Harris in the lead due to early and mail-in ballots, yet the numbers might tilt towards Trump as in-person votes are added. This pattern may shift again as all mail ballots—including those submitted on Election Day—are counted in the following days.

Nevada, known for its lengthy counting process in 2020, might experience quicker tabulation this year owing to new regulations that permit early ballot processing weeks before Election Day. However, Nevada’s acceptance of late-arriving mail ballots postmarked by November 5 could still delay final results, particularly as late ballots historically tend to favor Democrats.

Early trends suggest former US President and Republican nominee Donald Trump has secured an initial lead with approximately 150 electoral votes over Vice President Kamala Harris. However, political analysts caution that this early advantage may not reflect the final outcome, as Democratic candidate Kamala Harris could still turn the tide.

The phenomenon, often referred to as “mirages” in elections, is poised to play a significant role in shaping public perceptions on election night, particularly in battleground states where quirks in vote counting can create misleading impressions.

What gave Trump a chance to claim ‘stolen election’

In 2020, states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin displayed what experts termed a “red mirage,” showing Trump leading on election night before a “blue shift” occurred as mail-in ballots, predominantly favored by Democrats, were tallied, ultimately pushing Joe Biden into the lead. Trump’s team leveraged this pattern to assert claims of a stolen election, though the outcome was merely a reflection of the states’ voting laws and mail-in ballot trends. Similar dynamics are anticipated this week, with a possible shift as in-person votes are counted in states like North Carolina and Georgia.

Why declaring victory is complex

As ballots are counted, Trump’s campaign reportedly plans to declare victory if he appears to surpass the critical 270 electoral vote threshold—a move experts argue could be premature given the complexities of ballot processing in various states. A significant portion of Democratic voters resides in populous urban areas where vote processing is typically slower, potentially leading to delayed counts that could significantly influence final tallies in the days following Election Day. This variance in vote reporting will leave some states, particularly Pennsylvania and Arizona, entrenched in a prolonged counting process as absentee ballots trickle in.

What delays results

Each battleground state has its own timeline and rules for processing votes, which could affect the perceived winner on election night. For instance, Pennsylvania prohibits election officials from counting mail-in ballots until the morning of Election Day, which may delay results for days as Democratic mail-in votes gradually chip away at Trump’s in-person voting advantage. A new law aims to mitigate concerns by requiring counties to disclose the number of outstanding mail ballots by midnight, helping to prevent misinformation.

In Wisconsin, where votes are processed centrally in major cities, large early-morning surges of absentee ballots could again shift the balance in Harris’s favor, similar to what occurred for Biden in 2020. Likewise, North Carolina, known for its extended vote canvassing, may keep Americans guessing for days as absentee and overseas ballots continue to be counted even after election night.

In states like Arizona, where mail voting is prevalent, early results might show Harris leading due to early and mail-in ballots, although the numbers could swing towards Trump as in-person votes are added. This trend may reverse again once all mail ballots—including those delivered on Election Day—are counted in the following days.

Nevada, notorious for its lengthy counting process in 2020, could see quicker tabulation this year due to new regulations allowing early ballot processing weeks ahead of Election Day. However, Nevada’s allowance for late-arriving mail ballots postmarked by November 5 may delay a final result, as traditionally Democratic late ballots are counted.

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